The preliminary report on the crisis of Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the region is a document made by the OAS (Organization of American States) that was announced in recent weeks. From the causes that drive the exodus to the forecast of what may happen in the coming years, it is a work that seeks to contextualize and put figures to one of the most resonant tragedies of this time. In this sense, the prognosis is not encouraging: if there are no significant changes in the situation, the number of Venezuelan migrants could exceed eight million people by the end of 2020.
The report, which was prepared by the working group for the Venezuelan refugee crisis of the OAS, is structured around three essential points. In the first place, it seeks to explain the causes that drive the mass migration of Venezuelans; then, try to put in context the figures of this exodus, in comparison with similar events in Syria and Afghanistan; Finally, it draws a forecast about what could happen in 2019 and 2020 and reviews the state of the financing that is being invested in the matter.
The purpose of the report, as clarified in the first pages, is to contribute to “create the basis for a regional agreement that provides care and protection to Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the Americas.” The next step is the preparation of a new report, which is estimated to be ready in June, where they will give “recommendations for governments for the care and protection” of those who had to flee.
The coordinator of the working group is the Venezuelan David Smolansky. Consulted by Clarín via mail, he explained that the regional agreement is quite advanced, and that within it would be “the majority of the members of the OAS, with special emphasis on those places where there are more” of victims. “Governments will be advised to give attention and protection to Venezuelan migrants and refugees, and will be focused on issues such as citizen security, human rights, training, labor integration and health, among others,” he added.
To make the report, the group based its work on fieldwork (they visited the border between Colombia and Venezuela three times), consultations with civil society and research and contributions of their own.
The numbers
The hardships that Venezuelans have suffered for several years have been documented in numerous articles and reports. In this sense, the report prepared by the OAS seeks to establish a narrative of the tragedy through numbers and figures.
Until the end of 2018, around 3.4 million Venezuelans (more than 10 percent of the population) had fled to various destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean (the report only accounts for the migrations in the region, so take into account those who emigrated to Europe or the United States).
The main refugee recipient has been Colombia, with about 1.2 million people. They are followed by Peru (700 thousand), Chile (265 thousand), Ecuador (250 thousand), Argentina (130 thousand) and Brazil (100 thousand). At this point, we must highlight cases such as Curaçao, which received less than other places (26 thousand people), but which, in proportion, represent 15 percent of the total population of the island.
The high flow of migrants throughout 2018 results in a shocking figure: approximately 5 thousand people per day, 200 per hour, left the country. In turn, many of them leave in conditions of extreme vulnerability. According to a UN report cited in the report, more than 40 percent of those who fled were suffering from a nutritional problem. To this we must add that they carried diseases that had already been eradicated from the region, such as tuberculosis, diphtheria and malaria.
Causes of the crisis
Among the main reasons cited by the report are the economic collapse of the country, the persecution and generalized violence, and social control and the limitation of freedoms.
On the economic level, to the already known data of hyperinflation and the shortage of food and remedies, the report adds the data that 87 percent of households are below the national poverty line. A statistic reflects that more than half of the population has registered an average weight loss of 11 kilos.
In the field of health, the figures are equally impressive. According to sources cited by the report, infant mortality has increased by 30 percent, and maternal mortality by 65 percent since the regime stopped releasing official figures in 2015.
Violence in the country is a central fact. According to a report by the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence cited in the report, the number of homicides in 2018 was 23,047, a rate of 81.4 per 100 thousand inhabitants. It is the highest in the continent, and one of the highest in the world.
In the field of political persecution, the report cites a report by the NGO Penal Forum, which in February 2019 affirmed that there were 966 political prisoners in the country. Reference is also made to the use of the “country card” (a type of identification required to access certain social benefits) as a mechanism through which “the government makes social control”.
The crisis in context
As registered in these three years (2015-2018), the numbers of the Venezuelan crisis have a similar correlate to other similar episodes in the world, with the particularity that in the Latin American case it is an exodus that was not caused by a war conflict.
The war in Syria, for example, would have caused a total of displaced persons outside the country of 6.3 million people, between 2011 and 2017. Although in the case of Venezuela, not all those fleeing have the status of “refugees”. “In the receiving countries, they do correspond to a category that the United Nations calls” as refugees “. If a parallel is drawn between both situations, the speed and growth of Venezuelan migrants is almost as great as that registered in the Syrian case, during the same period of time.
Looking ahead
When drawing a map of what is coming, the report is based on analyzes prepared by the UN and the Brooking Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as BI). The United Nations makes a linear projection, that is, assumes that the situation will not change in 2019 or 2020. Based on this methodology, forecasts 5.4 million migrants by the end of this year, and 7.5 million for next year.
In the case of BI, this is an analysis based on the percentage of the Venezuelan population that will not be able to meet their basic nutritional needs, and hence the projection for 2019 and 2020. In this case, it concludes that there could be 8.2 million Venezuelan refugees by the end of next year. It should be noted that the projection of the UN is only for Latin America and the Caribbean, while the projection of the BI is not limited to any region.
Regarding the future of the country and the validity of these forecasts, Smolansky said that “the exit (Maduro) will be imminent (…) As one would say in boxing, is against the ropes and when you are in that situation, you have to knock him out” .
With information from the Mercosur Information Agency.
